Bolivia: Elections, Change and Challenges

On Oct. 19, Bolivians elected a new president, dark horse center-right candidate Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who ran under the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). It is the first time in 20 years that Bolivia’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, has not won a national election, or even been on the ballot.

The election marks a generational change for the Andean country and takes place amid a deep financial crisis, which in turn will force the new president to make quick, dramatic decisions regarding Bolivia’s international relations.

The MAS party splintered under outgoing president Luis Arce. Prior to being president, Arce was the Economic Minister for ex-president Evo Morales, also of the MAS, but each blames the other for a severe dollar shortage and worsening inflation.

As president from 2006 – 2019, Morales shifted Bolivia’s economic model away from dependence on Western powers and financial institutions in favor of the Cuban and Venezuelan-led ALBA trade alliance and closer ties to China. He kicked out the U.S. Ambassador, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, and USAID, claiming they were plotting against his government. The two countries have not exchanged ambassadors since 2008.

President-elect Paz has promised to renew Bolivia’s relationship with the United States, and with Western financial institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund as he seeks help resolving the financial crisis.

Much of Paz’s electoral success is attributed to his running mate, Edman Lara, a former police officer who gained fame denouncing corruption on Tik Tok. But Lara seemed especially popular among former MAS voters, and has received praise from Evo Morales, who told his followers to vote for the PDC.

The PDC does not have a majority in Congress, and Paz will have to ally himself with either the left (remnants of the MAS) or the far right. His plan to welcome increased U.S. influence is sure to alienate the left, and Lara has already made public statements expressing concern about the direction Paz might take, and saying the president-elect is not taking his calls.

Bolivia is one of the world’s largest producers of cocaine, and human rights advocates are watching warily to see if Paz will welcome the DEA or U.S. military back to Bolivia, even as the Trump Administration carries out a series of extrajudicial killings of alleged South American drug traffickers.

Photo of Rodrigo Paz in 2022 by Jallallabolivia – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, available via Wikimedia commons.