Foresight Africa Report in 2o26

The Brookings Institution’s annual report of trends and policy recommendations for Africa outlines six areas: greater mobilization of Africa’s own resource wealth for development; investing in human capital and quality jobs, especially for youth and women; leveraging its natural resources, including critical minerals, renewable energy, and the blue economy, to foster industrial development; strengthening peace, security, and democratic governance; firmly situating Africa in the new multipolar global order; and integrating intracontinental trade and technological innovation as a prime mover to economic progress.

The challenges are daunting. Pierre Nguimkeu, Director of Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative, says: “In 2026, Africa stands at a defining moment… The continent is poised to experience the world’s fastest labor force expansion: a net increase of roughly 740 million working-age people by 2050, with 12 million young Africans entering the labor market each year—compared with only 3 million new formal wage jobs. At the same time, foreign aid, historically the region’s primary source of concessional finance, is undergoing an unprecedented contraction. This decline comes just as Africa’s capital needs are intensifying…and as more than half of the region’s low-income countries face high risk of debt distress.”

Africa faces a gap between savings and needs for investment of $245 billion per year up to the year 2029. As traditional aid declines, other sources can make up the difference, such as improving tax revenue collection, targeting multinational companies’ tax avoidance, utilizing its natural resources for greater domestic profit, establishing sovereign wealth funds, optimizing diaspora remittances for social development (worth $90.8 billion in 2023), and rectifying biases in credit ratings.

The report covered how African realities can serve as advantages and generate quality jobs at scale. These include a young workforce, a vast continental market, millions of entrepreneurial small businesses, broadening digital access, and immense agricultural capacity. An exciting essay opined that creative arts can generate many jobs, such as in the music and film fields.

Industrial growth is a promising area where Africa can advance rapidly. The continent possesses three major assets to achieve this growth: mineral resources, including the critical minerals for the energy transition such as cobalt, copper, and coltan; the blue economy, which leverages ocean-based opportunities in renewable energy, sustainable fishing, transport, tourism, and more; and expansive renewable energy potential from solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Mineral extraction, however, needs to be buttressed with far greater domestic and international efforts to combat gross exploitation of workers and promote human rights. Investments are also needed to help African nations capture more value from the minerals by refining them locally or even producing more finished goods.

Yet, Africa’s commercial growth need not be limited to traditional manufacturing enterprises. The Brookings study “New Pathways to Job Creation in Africa” focused on activities that offer similar benefits to manufacturing, what the authors call “industries without smokestacks,” including tourism, business services, agro-processing, horticulture and export agriculture, IT services, and transport/logistics. Constraints to this growth are the usual suspects like inadequate electricity, transportation, and digital connectivity. Beyond addressing those gaps, African nations must also invest in relevant skills training programs and create a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and competition.

Globally, there has been substantial democratic backsliding, from which Africa is not immune. Bolstering democracy in Africa requires three actions: ensuring free and fair elections; empowering oversight institutions, such as the legislature, judiciary, audit bodies, and anti-corruption agencies, to check the executive; and supporting robust non-state actors, including the media, universities, and civil society, to ensure leaders are responsive. Accountable democratic governance provides the best opportunity to avoid civil strife and promote economic progress.

Africa intends to claim its place in a multipolar world. The African Union’s strategic plan, Agenda 2063, envisions Africa as a “united and influential partner” in global affairs, not simply accepting external priorities. This relies on substantial regional integration, which has been made more possible through the recent African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). Additionally, future international trade partnerships are in flux, continuing to evolve and shift. Success in intracontinental integration and diversification of trading opportunities can hasten economic growth in Africa.

To sum up, Africa has many challenges but tremendous promise.

Photo: Foresight Africa cover photo, courtesy of the Brookings Institution.